Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders: NRL semi-final preview and prediction

For the fourth year in a row, the Parramatta Eels find themselves staring down the barrel of a Week 2 exit from the finals. This time, standing in their way, is the Canberra Raiders.

The Raiders have their own story to tell heading into this match, and it in itself deserves plenty of attention.

The Green Machine have come from the clouds to make the finals, and then secured a win that few gave them a chance of last week just to make it this far.

But that all being said, there is little doubt that all the attention - whether good or bad - will be on the men in blue and gold coming into this match.

A team with premiership credentials over the last four years don't have a single preliminary final to show for it, and with an exodus of talent led by Isaiah Papali'i and Reed Mahoney at the end of the year, their chances to bring the Provan-Summons trophy back to Parramatta for the first time in a very, very long time, might shrink to virtually nil if they can't find a way to do it this year.

Pump the brakes: Pressure on Brad Arthur is justified, but he is the best option

The problem for Brad Arthur, who will be under a mountain of pressure if the club lose tonight, is consistency. A lack of consistency has consistently been Parramatta's biggest problem for most of the last four years.

That consistency has flared up again at various points throughout this season, and struck them during the second half of their qualifying final against minor premiers the Penrith Panthers last week.

For a team that has beaten the Panthers and Storm this season, they have also had some remarkably poor performances and last week's second half at the foot of the mountains was one of them.

After a first half which saw them right up to their neck in the game, going into halftime a single point behind, the second half saw the men in blue and gold struggle to maintain the rage or any sort of calm at either end of the park.

The game was virtually gone by the time Mitchell Moses was taken off with a concussion, but that certainly didn't help the fulltime score.

The simple fact is that if Parramatta are going to win the competition, they are going to need to find a way to play for 80 minutes, and do it three games in a row.

That right now looks more like an impossibility than anything else, and yet, with the names on their roster - Mitchell Moses, Dylan Brown, Clint Gutherson, Maika Sivo, Junior Paulo, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Isaiah Papali'i, Ryan Matterson, Shaun Lane and Reed Mahoney - it shouldn't be.

While consistency is the bug bear of the Eels, the Raiders have their own issues to deal with, this being their second six-day turnaround in a row.

They went from a Sunday finish to the regular season, into a Saturday night final against the Storm in Melbourne, and now onto a Friday evening clash with Parramatta, again a couple of hours up the road in Sydney.

Ricky Stuart's side might have the disadvantage when it comes to fatigue, but they have otherwise displayed some excellent form.

Knocking off the Storm in Melbourne is no easy feat, and even tougher when it's a knockout game, but they won their fifth straight game in the Victorian capital to keep the run going.

After a slow first half of the season, the Raiders came from the clouds to make the finals, and now there are real questions about just how far the green machine can go.

Team news

Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Tom Opacic 5. Waqa Blake 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson
Interchange: 14. Makahesi Makatoa 15. Jakob Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore 18. Nathan Brown 19. Bailey Simonsson

The Eels might be unchanged for their semi-final with the Raiders, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been plenty to report on the team news front.

All of that is centres around Moses though.

The star half will be just seven days removed from a sickening concussion suffered with 20 minutes to play last Friday, and while he has been named, and has reportedly cleared every protocol there is, doubt will still linger over his fitness until 60 minutes before kick-off when teams are confirmed.

Jakob Arthur, who is on standby, would be promoted off the bench if Moses is out, while Nathan Brown would then likely fill the spot on the bench.

Brad Arthur's desire to play with a utility means it's likely Arthur will be retained on the bench with no last minute swap likely if Moses is fit.

Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Jack Wighton 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Harawira-Naera
Interchange: 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Ryan Sutton 18. Albert Hopoate 20. Matt Frawley

While the Eels have a "maybe" injury problem, the Raiders have a confirmed one, and it's a big blow to the green machine.

Adam Elliott has been absolutely phenomenal during the second half of the season as the Raiders have risen up the premiership table, but he will miss the remainder of the campaign - however long that may be - with a hip injury.

It means Corey Harawira-Naera, who at various points this year has been on the outer, will come into the starting side at lock, although it's likely he will shift onto the edge and play in his more preferred position at some point.

Elliott's absence also brings Ryan Sutton, who will leave the club at season's end, onto the bench in what is the only change.

Where it'll be won

Both of these teams have the tendency to show up one week and not the other. The Raiders' consistency has been far better during the second half of the season, but there have still been moments where they have been well off the boil.

That said, we could simply say the team who turns up and has a faster start will win this, but that isn't strictly true, and being a knockout game, the hope would be that both will come out firing.

If they do, it will make the first 20 minutes - and a titanic battle between two incredible sets of starting props - all the more critical.

Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii have been two of the best props in the competition in recent times, while both Junior Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard played for New South Wales at times this year.

Tapine in particular has an advantage in that he will play likely more minutes than the other three, but a dominant opening in terms of field position and territory on the back of the starting props could go a long way to winning that one.

It also could see a dead even start with plenty of physicality which will then see the game open right up during the second half.

That's where the likes of Mitchell Moses, Dylan Brown, Jack Wighton and Jamal Fogarty - not to mention Xavier Savage and Clint Gutherson will come into play.

There could well be plenty of points during the second half of this match, and while it's not an assurance, the battle of the spine will be remarkably important.

At their best, Moses and Brown have been unstoppable this season, but the Raiders' rise up the table, and the recent form surge of Jack Wighton, has well and truly coincided with the return - or arrival in fact - of Jamal Fogarty after he missed the first half of the season with injury.

In all the key compartments, there is virtually nothing in this game, but taking a narrow contest, the difference maker could yet be Eels' lock Ryan Matterson.

He has been phenomenal to say the least, and suddenly playing without Adam Elliott, the Raiders could well be down a step in the middle third of the park.

Don't be surprised if it hurts them.

The history

There isn't a great deal in the history stakes to go on in this one.

The last time the teams met in Parramatta was in 2020, resulting in a thrilling one-point win for the Eels, while they have played 62 games in total, with the Raiders having a slight edge.

Remarkably, they have never met in finals football.

Overall record: Played 62, Raiders 32, Eels 30
Record at CommBank Stadium: Played 1, Eels 1, Raiders 0
Record in finals: Never played

Prediction

This has the feel of a match that could go either way, and one that is almost impossible to predict because we simply don't know which version of the Eels, and which version of the Raiders will rock up.

Taking them at their strongest, the Eels have the longer recovery and the home ground advantage, where they have a phenomenal record against just about anyone.

If their forwards can handle the opening onslaught from Papalii and Tapine, then they should take the win, but it'll be a tight one either way.

Eels by 6.