NRL Magic Round has come and gone for another year, and crowd attendance records were broken with 147,105 fans passing through the gates in total. It truly is a fantastic advertisement for the game. Whether it stays in Brisbane or is hosted in New Zealand in 2024, it will continue to make positive waves for the game.
The Wests Tigers recorded their second win in a row, while all four Queensland-based teams had a win. Remarkably, three of them were playing 'away' games. Not a bad little boost for them!
Before we get into Round 11 tips and Supercoach pointers, to help you with your trades, here are the list of teams playing in Rounds 13 and 14.
Teams that play in Round 13:
Dolphins, Dragons, Eels, Cowboys, Warriors, Broncos, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Knights and Sea Eagles
Teams that play in Round 14:
Tigers, Raiders, Warriors, Dolphins, Titans, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Broncos, Roosters, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Storm, Panthers, Dragons
Round 11: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday 11th May 7:50pm | AAMI Park Melbourne
Why the Storm will win: The Broncos have had a dream schedule to start 2023, stepping out of Queensland just twice (Penrith and Darwin) in the opening ten rounds. It will be a frosty reception for the ladder-leaders in Melbourne on Thursday night, tipped to be around 13 degrees at kick-off which will suit the Storm. The Storm's form has been hot and cold, but their home ground advantage will rattle the Broncos who have enjoyed plenty of convenient rhythm in 2023.
Why the Broncos will win: The Broncos have had a relatively unaffected run with minimal injuries/suspensions seeing them bolstering combinations across the paddock. Brisbane will still be on a high after the buzz of Magic Round, and their form in demolishing the hapless Sea Eagles will give them plenty of confidence. The Storm, on the other hand, were disappointing in their loss to the Rabbitohs.
Fansided tip: Storm by 4
SuperCoach notes: Selwyn Cobbo had a higher-than average score last week, so careful chasing points. Payne Haas had a mammoth game but only posted a 55 which would have frustrated owners. In a poor showing against the Rabbitohs, Nick Meaney still looked very involved and Cameron Munster still managed to score 72. Nelson Asofa-Solomona is owned by just 2.2% of punters and boasts a 1.3PPM across 48 minutes.
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors
Friday 12th May 6:00pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Why the Bulldogs will win: The Bulldogs get a huge boost with Josh Addo-Carr named to return, replacing Declan Casey. His combination with Matt Burton was getting better each week until his untimely injury. For the Warriors, their spine is once again shuffled around with Ronald Volkman starting at 6. Despite the Warriors' huge improvement this year, they really need to get some consistency in the spine to take that next step. The Bulldogs have looked more creative in attack with Reynolds and Oluapu filling the shoes of Kyle Flanagan.
Why the Warriors will win: The Bulldogs are the most penalised team in the comp, and it's not even that close. Conceding 76 penalties across ten games, the 'Dogs have invited opposing teams up the field with concerning regularity. The Bulldogs also run 3rd overall when it comes to errors made. Finally, the Bulldogs have conceded the most points out of any team and missed the most tackles out of any team. Statistically, it's getting very difficult to tip the Bulldogs, regardless of effort.
Fansided tip: Warriors by 10
SuperCoach notes: Addin Fonua-Blake continues to impress, notching up a 91 on the weekend in a losing side. The same can be said for the ever-consistent Tohu Harris who put on 96. Jackson Ford is a potential sell now, out this weekend with a head knock. There's not a lot of NRLSC relevance for the Canterbury side, although Jacob Preston is surely in the conversation for Rookie of the Year.
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
Friday 12th May 8:00pm | BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
Why the Panthers will win: As has been their modus operandi for most of the year, the Panthers got the job done without being spectacular. Having lost some strike in the off-season, the Penrith side have had to develop more of a fighting character and it was on show against a Warriors side that were a little unlucky to be playing with 12 men for two different periods. Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Dylan Edwards are all in commanding form, and when that's happening, it usually produces a streak of wins.
Why the Roosters will win: The Roosters have done some serious soul-searching through the week, and coach Trent Robinson has made it clear that nobody's position is safe. While the growing consensus is that Joseph Manu isn't a five-eighth, his presence in the middle has toughened up the defense there and he's getting more touches which is what the Roosters need. Many tipped at the start of the year that it would be a Panthers vs Roosters grand final, and it's likely that's how the Roosters will be approaching this upcoming match-up.
Fansided tip: Panthers by 4
SuperCoach notes: With a 3-round average just under 80, Manu ($656K) is close to a must-have considering he will also be leading the Roosters around during the Origin period. Billy Smith ($289K) will feature again this week after posting a 71 in his first game of 2023. With a 3-round average of 82.7, Dylan Edwards is expensive, but will (likely) again be one of the best players not to get a NSW jersey and will be handy through the Origin period. Spencer Leniu ($379K) gets an average of about 40 minutes per game in the FRF slot, has a PPM of 1.1 and a 3-round average just under 50. Lindsay Smith has a BE of 1, and is pumping out a PPM of 1.2.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers
Saturday 13th May 3:00pm | Accor Stadium, Sydney
Why the Rabbitohs will win: The Rabbitohs haven't lost a match since March, and they've embarrassed the Storm, Panthers, Broncos, Dolphins and Bulldogs in that streak. Commentators love to talk Souths' lethal attack, yet in 2023 they have the comp's second best defensive record. They're in the premiership conversation while the Tigers are in the wooden spoon conversation.
Why the Tigers will win: The power of belief has been restored at the Tigers, and they will have renewed vigor after back to back wins, one of which was against the defending premiers. The positivity that flows when a much-bashed team is now the darlings of the NRL media, and while they have the least wins on the board in 2023, they've been competitive in most matches.
Fansided tip: Souths by 14
SuperCoach notes: The hottest 2RF property in 2022 was Isaiah Papali'i, and he's rediscovering his damaging ball-running form while at a bottom dollar price of $587K. Jahream Bula ($282K) has been a revelation at fullback and has a BE of -32 this week, averaging 52.3. Unlikely to feature in the Origin squad, Cody Walker is returning to his best form, and while he's exxy, he has a 5-round average of 92.6.
North Queensland Cowboys vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Saturday 13th May 5:30pm | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Why the Cowboys will win: It was a long time coming, but the Cowboys' dismantling of the highly-fancied Roosters at Magic Round was clinical and much more comparable to their 2022 form. The Dragons were pretty dismal losing to the last-placed Wests Tigers and coach Anthony Griffin's decision to stick with the same lineup has confused and aggravated many fans. North Queensland will enjoy the home crowd advantage on a Saturday afternoon, with their fans likely to be re-energised and enthusiastic after Magic Round.
Why the Dragons will win: Surely at this stage, coach Anthony Griffin is on his final leg, and with rumours of a caretaker coach to step into the position should he be removed, players will likely want to avoid the early onslaught of team shuffles. The combination between the Dragons' best player Ben Hunt and fullback Tyrell Sloan is still dynamic and can produce points, while Jayden Sullivan provides immense spark off the bench. The Dragons need to produce plenty of points to win this one.
Fansided tip: Cowboys by 10
SuperCoach notes: Reuben Cotter is building back towards his damaging best and posted a 90 last week with an increase of minutes (69). He may figure in Origin calculations however. Jack De Belin scored 91 and at $597K and 2RF/FRF status, he is a red-hot option with a 3-round average of 75. Max Feagai has to be a sneaky CTW option at $234K, averaging 50 in his two games. If Zac Lomax manages to find his way back into the side, and it's expected he will, Feagai will likely make way.
Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels
Saturday 13th May 7:35pm | GIO Stadium, Canberra
Why the Raiders will win: The Raiders last lost back in March, and while they haven't been electric, they've been solid. The Eels have lost Mitchell Moses and that is an enormous dent in the spine, particularly weakening their kick metres and creativity. It should be about 8 degrees in the Nation's capital on Saturday night which will give the home side quite an advantage. Expect Jack Wighton to continue to aim up for a tilt at the finals in his final year as a Raider.
Why the Eels will win: The Eels have a match-winning reliable half still on the park in Dylan Brown, and if he can spark the left edge of Maika Sivo and Will Penisini, the Eels still have plenty of points in them there. The forwards battle will be thunderous in this match, with the Eels enjoying a slight advantage and a rampaging Ryan Matterson coming off the bench.
Fansided tip: Raiders by 2
SuperCoach notes: Owned by only 1.4% of Supercoaches, Matthew Timoko ($654K) is in rare form and vaunts a 3-round average of 91. He's a big-time POD play. Joseph Tapine should start to see an increase in minutes as the Eels enter the Origin period, and he is currently averaging 1.2PPM. Ominously, he has not yet reached his best this year. Jarrod Croker ($392K) has earned owners $113K in his four games for the year and averages 52.3. Dylan Brown is just about must-have at 6, available through Origin and with a 3-round average just shy of 100.
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans
Sunday 14th May 2:00pm | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Why the Knights will win: The bye couldn't have come at a better time last round for the Knights. Their coach had described them as fatigued and the rest will have done them a world of good. Their bench will be bolstered by the return of Adam Elliott who always brings a truckload of effort to the team. Kalyn Ponga will be wanting to allay any reservations Queensland selectors have of him and will be likely having a big game.
Why the Titans will win: Gold Coast will be pushing for three wins in a row after knocking over the Sea Eagles and Eels. Despite playing through a foot injury in Magic Round, Kieran Foran has once again been named which will bolster their attack. David Fifita is in career best form and will be auditioning for his likely spot in the Queensland Origin squad.
Fansided tip: Titans by 8
SuperCoach notes: Not too much NRLSC relevance for the Knights, other than Phoenix Crossland who has made owners $80K since filling in at hooker. His average of 40 is higher than his 2022 average of 31. Alofiana Khan-Pereira keeps repaying those who held with another 73 last week, although he's up against some solid edge defense this weekend.
Manly Sea-Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks
Sunday 14th May 4:05pm | 4 Pines Park, Manly
Why the Sea-Eagles will win: The Dolphins kindly provided the rest of the competition with the blueprint to beating the Sharks last round, and you'd expect the Sea-Eagles squad to have taken very close notice. While the Sharks weren't at their best, they were comprehensively accounted for by a Dolphins side that many have noted are under-strength. The home ground advantage on a Sunday arvo should give Manly a few more points to get the job done.
Why the Sharks will win: The Sharks are too professional of a squad to allow a repeat of last week's performance, and for those taking note of the Sharks players speaking with the media this week, they will be sharp and lethal. Prior to Magic Round, Cronulla's form has been irresistible and with several Sharks still pushing hard to find their way into an Origin jumper, expect a dynamic snap back to form. Arguably Manly's best player Tom Trbojevic is simply nowhere near his best, and that is concerning for Manly and also NSW.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 13
SuperCoach notes: Taniela Paseka is owned by less than 2% of punters, and is pumping out a consistent PPM of 1.1 with more than 50 mins of game time each week. Reuben Garrick is a bargain at the moment. Dual CTW/FLB and at $540K, he put up 83 without any tries in a badly beaten side in Magic Round and averages 64.3. If Manly improve, which you'd expect they will, Garrick will make you some cash and give you a load of points. There are plenty of NRLSC relevant Sharkies, but you'll be paying top dollar. Thomas Hazelton has become a staple on the bench and while he only plays a quarter of the game, his PPM is a dazzling 1.3 - 1.4.
