A day of knockout rugby league in the first week of the NRL finals gets underway in Auckland, with the New Zealand Warriors to clash with four-time premiers the Penrith Panthers.
The Warriors have looked like a team who have all but run out of steam on the run to the finish line.
The loss of Luke Metcalf a number of weeks ago put a serious dent in what was looking like a top-four charge at one stage for Andrew Webster's side.
They haven't totally dropped their bundle, but they certainly aren't the same team as the one who ran onto the park in the first 20 rounds.
They will be relying on finals intensity and a home ground advantage to try and stop a red-hot Penrith Panthers side.
The four-time premiers haven't had the type of season they would have wanted either, but in opposite form to the Warriors, they have hit their stride towards the back end.
At one point, Ivan Cleary's side looked like they would almost certainly be in the mix for the wooden spoon. Their depth simply wasn't what it was, and they had struggled to replace last season's departures James Fisher-Harris and Jarome Luai.
But then they turned a corner, and with the exception of a couple of blips against top four teams, were flawless on the run in, securing themselves another finals series as they pursue a sixth straight grand final.
Team news
New Zealand Warriors
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 3. Adam Pompey, 4. Kurt Capewell, 5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 6. Chanel Harris-Tavita, 7. Tanah Boyd, 8. James Fisher-Harris, 9. Wayde Egan, 10. Jackson Ford, 11. Leka Halasima, 12. Marata Niukore, 13. Erin Clark
Interchange: 14. Te Maire Martin, 15. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava, 16. Demitric Vaimauga, 17. Tanner Stowers-Smith
Reserves: 18. Taine Tuaupiki, 20. Samuel Healey
The Warriors are without Rocco Berry, who has injured himself yet again.
With options available, but not ideal, coach Andrew Webster elected to shift Kurt Capewell into the centres, promote Leka Halasima into the second-row, and call Eddie Ieremia-Toeava onto the bench.
Wayde Egan is back though in a big boost for the home side. He slots straight in at hooker after being rested last week in what is a straight swap with Samuel Healey, who is on the reserves list.
Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Paul Alamoti, 3. Izack Tago, 4. Casey McLean, 5. Brian To'o, 6. Blaize Talagi, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Moses Leota, 9. Luke Sommerton, 10. Lindsay Smith, 11. Scott Sorensen, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Brad Schneider, 15. Liam Henry, 16. Isaiah Papali'i, 17. Luke Garner
Reserves: 18. Thomas Jenkins, 19. Matthew Eisenhuth
The Panthers welcome back Brian To'o and Liam Martin, who had an extra week of rest. 14 of the remaining Penrith players were rested alongside the duo in Round 26.
They are all good to go again, although Thomas Jenkins has been dropped for To'o to make his return, while Paul Alamoti retains his spot on the other wing.
The return of Martin sees him start, Luke Garner drop back to the bench, and Matthew Eisenhuth drop to the reserves list.
History
Head-to-head record: Played 53, Panthers 33, Warriors 19, Drawn 1
Record at venue: Played 21, Panthers 11, Warriors 10
Record in finals: Played 3, Panthers 3, Warriors 0
Last meeting: Round 16, 2025, Warriors 18 defeated by Panthers 28 at Mt Smart Stadium
Keys to the game
Dylan Edwards' form
It would be fair to say Dylan Edwards has not been in form which won him a NSW Blues jersey in recent weeks.
He has fit like a glove into Penrith's system over the years, even if the feeling around the competition is that maybe he wouldn't do quite so well if he was at another club.
Regardless of the way he has been playing in recent weeks, Edwards is critical to Penrith.
If they are going to make a run through September, or indeed beat the Warriors in Auckland, they need their representative fullback putting them onto the front foot early and often.
The Warriors' kicking game
A big part of the Warriors' problems on the run to the finals series and finish line this year started the moment Luke Metcalf injured his knee.
The halfback was in great form through the first half of the season, and then, in the blink of an eye, there was no more Metcalf.
Tanah Boyd has been serviceable, but in inconsistent doses. When he gets it right, the Warriors look a decent footy team, but they are going to have to be better than that one would assume to crumple the Panthers' charge.
Boyd's kicking game, and the support he gets from Chanel Harris-Tavita will probably determine whether the home side are a chance in this one.
The battle to slow down James Fisher-Harris
If the kicking game, and indeed management around the park, is on par with what Nathan Cleary and the Panthers can do, then all the attention is going to go straight to the middle third.
This is an absolutely ding-dong battle. One of the best of the first week.
James Fisher-Harris, against his old side, and against indeed the guys who have both had to stand up for the men from the foot of the mountains this year in Moses Leota and Lindsay Smith.
Both have well during the second half of the season, but it's not just that.
Jackson Ford for the Warriors has been excellent, and Erin Clark could knock Isaah Yeo off his perch as the walk up lock of the year, so good has his form been.
Fisher-Harris might be the leader, and he will need to do just that, but if he can, and he gets the support, the Warriors are going to be a hard outfit to slow down through the middle of the park, and then with weapons like Leka Halasima or Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad roaming, anything could happen.
Prediction
Whichever way you skin it, the Warriors have been limping through the final weeks of the season.
You can't discredit the enormous boost they will get from a sold out crowd in a home final, but this should still be a bridge too far for them against a Penrith side who have legitimate and genuine aspirations of winning the competition from outside the top four.
It'll be tough, but they need to get this one done comfortably.
We think it'll be closer for comfort than they'd like, but they should control things well enough.
Panthers by 12.
Key game information: New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL elimination final
Kick-off: Saturday, September 13, 4:05pm (AEST)
Venue: Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
TV: Live, Channel 9 and Fox League (502)
Online: Live, 9Now and Kayo Sports
Betting: Panthers $1.32, Warriors $3.42
