The New South Wales Blues have just three players who should be safe for the 2026 series.
Outside of Payne Haas, Brian To'o and Stephen Crichton everyone's spot should be in question after a dismal performance in Game 2 and 3 of the 2025 State of Origin series.
In truth, the Blues were below their best in Game 1 as well, but were able to paper over the cracks with the win, and then a nearly comeback in Perth during Game 2.
That comeback seemed to tell Laurie Daley - who should be under a similar amount of pressure in his role as head coach - that he didn't need to make any changes when that was the furthest thing from the truth.
Instead, the Blues rolled out the same 17, somehow played worse, and Queensland, who played their best game of the series by a long, long way, reaped the rewards.
The thing is though, even with Queensland playing well, on paper, the Blues should still have been able to win and lift the Shield in Sydney on Wednesday night.
But that simply didn't happen, and now they will have to wait a long 12 months to go again.
According to coach Daley, his side were good enough, the group of players doesn't need wholesale changes, and his side lost moments.
Yes, they were a few missed conversions away from having the series locked up in Perth, but the bottom line is they didn't, and then dished up an awful display in the decider.
The nucleus of the Blues side has been the same for a very long time now, but they have lost four of the last six series.
That means it is time for wholesale changes, starting with the coach, and winding its way through the playing roster.
Here is the state of play for every Blues position as it stands for 2026.
Fullback
Dylan Edwards has had five Origins in the number one jumper now, and while his career there isn't over by a long shot, it should be for now.
He works in the Penrith system, but it's clear the Blues need more than his ball-running at the back.
The bottom line is that there are better options available. James Tedesco would be two steps backwards, but Ryan Papenhuyzen was the form fullback of the competition leading into the Origin series this year, and if he is in similar form at the same point of 2026, he is a must select.
Verdict: Time for a change.
Wingers
Brian To'o had a phenomenal Origin series, and must be selected for New South Wales again next year. Some will point to his lack of height, but he was one of two standouts for the men from south of the Tweed.
Who the other winger is remains in doubt though.
Zac Lomax had a strong start to his Origin career, but was awful in Games 2 and 3. Even his goal-kicking wasn't up to scratch.
Jacob Kiraz was a potential selection ahead of Game 1 this year given Lomax's injury issues, was 18th man for Game 3, and is now primed for a debut. He could get that in Game 1 next year.
Verdict: To'o safe, Lomax in trouble.
Centres
Neither of the Blues centres had exceptional series, but Stephen Crichton is simply undroppable - he is the next Blues captain, and could be as soon as next year.
Isaah Yeo isn't a bad option to lead the side, but he simply didn't lead the team weel this year.
Latrell Mitchell is no guarantee of being selected. He will need a strong start to 2026 given a fairly quiet Origin series. If he is in form, he'll be there, but the likes of Bradman Best and even Tom Trbojevic who now is a fulltime centre, could push for his jersey.
Verdict: Crichton the next Blues captain, Mitchell needs to start 2026 well.
Halves
Both Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai had disappointing, bordering on unacceptable performances in Game 2 and 3.
That the Blues dominated the key stats areas and couldn't find a way to score is a blight on the duo. In truth, Cleary has a losing record at Origin level, and Luai was among the worst for the Blues.
Mitchell Moses has been the key to New South Wales stretching back some years now and should take the number seven for Game 1 next year, with Isaiya Katoa winning a Blues debut in the number six.
He is a halfback, but has the running game to satisfy the number six jumper.
Verdict: Both Cleary and Luai are gone.
Props
Payne Haas is the first player selected in this New South Wales side - make no mistake.
He had an exceptional series, and has barely put a foot wrong any time he has pulled on the blue jersey - no surprise there of course.
Mitch Barnett also makes his return to the starting side next year. He would have played Game 2 and 3 in the starting side if not for his season-ending ACL injury at the Warriors.
It does mean Max King, who had a good Game 1 off the bench, but struggled in Game 2 and 3 with limited minutes, makes way from the side altogether.
Verdict: Back to Game 1 props from 2025.
Hooker
Reece Robson is no guarantee to hold onto his jumper. Let's get that clear.
He defends well and looks a threat when running the ball, but all up, his service and decision making this year wasn't up to the mark.
The Blues are also blessed with a heap of options at number nine. Wayde Egan, Blayke Brailey. Even Apisai Koroisau, although in the same way that picking Tedesco would be two steps back, Koroisau is the same issue.
It's a three-way shootout next year, and Robson will have to be in very, very good form to retain.
Verdict: Robson in doubt, but might be safe.
Second-row
Angus Crichton had a poor back half of the series, but was still among the better players for the Blues. After a strong Game 1, he should survive.
Liam Martin, on the other hand, should not. He was poor throughout the series, and while he brings a big hit or six, the Blues need more than a handful of runs per game out of a starting, big-minute second-rower.
Hudson Young, who added plenty from the bench, should fill the void. Haumole Olakau'atu is the other option.
Verdict: Crichton safe, Martin out.
Lock
Let's be honest - Cameron Murray is the best lock in the competition. The Blues missed him horribly during the 2025 series.
He starts at lock next year, and then it's a case of whether there is a spot for Isaah Yeo on the bench.
About as easy of a decision as Laurie Daley - or whoever his replacement is - has.
Verdict: Murray would have played this year if not for injury.
Bench
Connor Watson is the first discussion point. He had limited minutes in this year's series, as if Laurie Daley was struggling to find a correct role.
The bottom line is though you need a utility, and Connor Watson fills more positions than anyone other than Kurt Mann, who is a Queenslander.
Matt Burton is the other obvious solution, but he isn't going to play in the forwards, so Watson, with an increased role, it should be.
We are going to retain Isaah Yeo on the bench for the Blues, along with two new faces in Terrell May, who should have played this year's series, and Keaon Koloamatangi, whose form may make him one of the more baffling overlooks when it came to replacing Mitch Barnett this year.
Both players will add plenty, with Koloamatangi also being able to shift to the edge. Given Cameron Murray and Mitch Barnett could do the same from the starting side, there is no need for a specialist second-rower on the bench.
Verdict: Watson still the best utility, but doubt over the rest.
Potential NSW Blues team, Game 1, 2026
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Brian To'o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Latrell Mitchell
5. Jacob Kiraz
6. Isaiya Katoa
7. Mitchell Moses
8. Payne Haas
9. Reece Robson
10. Mitchell Barnett
11. Angus Crichton
12. Hudson Young
13. Cameron Murray
14. Connor Watson
15. Keaon Koloamatangi
16. Terrell May
17. Isaah Yeo
List of changes from Game 3
Outs: Zac Lomax, Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary, Max King, Liam Martin, Spencer Leniu, Stefano Utoikamanu
Ins: Jacob Kiraz, Isaiya Katoa, Mitchell Moses, Mitchell Barnett, Cameron Murray, Keaon Koloamatangi, Terrell May









