SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 20: Tom Trbojevic of the Sea Eagles leaves the field with an injury during the round 11 NRL match between the Parramatta Eels and the Manly Sea Eagles at CommBank Stadium, on May 20, 2022, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
As NRL clubs look hopefully towards next season - we pessimistically ponder the worst-case scenario for each of the 17 teams in 2023.
Not re-signing Adam Reynolds was a massive gamble by South Sydney but as time eats away at the 32-year-old's body, it could be proven the correct call.
Brisbane has put a lot of stock in Reynolds, and rightly so - he was instrumental in their rise up the ladder in 2022 - but injury may cull his continued efforts in maroon and gold.
Reynolds's hamstring was an on-again-off-again issue last season, he faced time on the sideline with broken ribs and even this pre-season he has already been battling an ankle issue.
If a serious injury arises and Reynolds is put on ice for an indefinite period, can the likes of Ezra Mam or Jock Madden fill the void?
Or will Brisbane regress into the Broncos of yesteryear with plenty of young talent but no direction?
It is no coincidence that the Raiders' resurgence last season coincided with the return of Jamal Fogarty.
Ricky Stuart placed a lot of faith in the former Titans halfback when he brought him to the nation's capital to plug the hole left by George Williams' departure.
The Green Machine lost an important piece when Fogarty suffered a knee injury in pre-season and was absent from their opening twelve games.
Upon his return, the Raiders were placed 10th with a record of 5 wins and 7 losses but with a healthy halfback on board, they went 14 and 10 sneaking into the top eight.
If fortune doesn't favour Fogarty, it could mean the return of the 'Canberra Faders' and an early holiday in September.
The Bulldogs were disappointing in 2022, finishing 12th despite making what seemed like some solid recruitment moves. One recruit that did not disappoint was Matt Burton.
Not long into his opening year at Belmore, there were already rumours of Burton being unhappy as the club continued its 2021 struggles into last season.
Canterbury is seemingly in a much better place now, with Burton reuniting with Cameron Ciraldo, his former assistant coach at Penrith, and the roster being bolstered by the likes of Reed Mahoney and Viliame Kikau.
Admittedly, the prospect of losing Burton is more unlikely now than it was sometime back.
However, Burton is only signed on for next season with a player option for 2024 and as an Origin player, he may be able to seek a bigger pay day on the open market.
Nicho Hynes may have come away from 2022 with the Dally M but he is going into 2023 with something else entirely - a target on his back.
He ended the season equal third for try assists (21) and first for linebreak assists (29), and that won't go unnoticed by coaches planning their pre-season.
Hynes will be targeted and any club that unlocks the key to shutting the star halfback down might just have found a way to beach the Sharks' premiership chances.
Unless Blayke Brailey, Matt Moylan and William Kennedy can stand up around Hynes and provide a new focal point of attack, it will be a hard year for the reigning Dally M king.
It was an interesting move by Justin Holbrook, letting Jamal Fogarty join the Raiders and handing the number 7 jumper to young Toby Sexton.
Even if Holbrook believed Sexton, a then four-game NRL player, to be the future of the club, it was still a little early to let go of Fogarty.
The decision hurt the Titans last season as the team returned to the bottom four after breaking a five-year finals drought in 2021.
They have now backtracked on that decision, bringing in Foran due to his "wealth of experience," according to Holbrook.
Foran is a great player, but one who has never really tasted much success outside of Manly.
His time at the Warriors and Eels produced little fruit and even at the Bulldogs under Des Hasler, the coach he won a premiership with on the Northern Beaches, he failed to make finals.
His next two seasons under Dean Pay were marred with injury and playing alongside a roster that could not compete against top-level sides.
Hopefully for Titans fans, this narrative of not performing away from the Sea Eagles or being injury prone, is one Foran can shed in 2023.
This one goes without saying but Manly need Tom Trbojevic if they are going to claw their way back up the ladder.
'Turbo Tom' may be one of the game's greatest assets on the field but getting him there has become an arduous task for Manly.
A shoulder injury ruled him out last midway through last season, his hamstring issues have continued to raise concerns even going into this preseason. He also had some issues with his MCL early last year.
It would surprise no one if Trbojevic spent another extended period in the casualty ward in 2023, but the blow would be nonetheless painful to Manly fans.
With the losses of Jesse and Kenneath Bromwich, Brandon Smith, Felise Kaufusi, Cooper Johns and Tyson Smoothy, Melbourne has lost 806 games of NRL experience in the last year.
But one thing they have been able to hold onto is one of the best spines in the NRL with Jahrome Hughes, Harry Grant and Cameron Munster all locked up for next year and beyond.
The Storm is also expecting a Round 1 return for electric fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen after his gruesome knee injury.
Even with a squad list depleted of familiar names from seasons past, Melbourne can still be a premiership threat - if they can keep their spine on the field for the majority of next season.
Injury hung around the Storm like a bad smell in 2022 and Craig Bellamy had to make all sorts of roster changes throughout the year.
The constant in and out of Munster, Grant or Hughes due to injury or Origin will make it hard for Melbourne to stay in touch with sides like Penrith or the Roosters.
Papenhuyzen's run of injuries these last two seasons has been grim, and who's to say after shattering his knee in 10 places that he will return the same player he was.
COVID has challenged all the NRL clubs over the past three seasons - but no club more than the Warriors.
In addition to the fact they went 1038 days without a proper home game following their relocation to Queensland in 2020, they also lost a host of key staff in that period.
Following the sacking of Stephen Kearney; Todd Payten, Nathan Brown and Stacey Jones all came and went as head coaches.
Their captain and 2018 Dally M winner, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck jumped codes to play rugby union and his replacement, Reece Walsh eventually linked up with Brisbane.
The Warriors have a new head coach in Andrew Webster plus a host of promising signings for 2023 and would be hoping a pre-season and regular home games in New Zealand will return stability to the club.
However, if all these new pieces fail to fit together then it's likely the Warriors will continue to be haunted by the ghost of the pandemic.
Newcastle coach Adam O'Brien has lots to worry about in 2023 as another campaign like last season will likely see him out of a job.
The Knights' pick-up of Jackson Hastings should help put the club back on course, provided he pairs well with whoever ends up in the halves with him.
But one thing is certain, whether he plays fullback or five-eighth, if Newcastle is going to break out of the bottom four, they need their captain on deck and playing consistent football.
Kalyn Ponga has shown in Origin that when surrounded by other players who are rowing the boat in the same direction, he can be an elite player, but constant head knocks are preventing him from fulfilling his potential at club level.
Another prolonged stint in the concussion bin would be catastrophic for Newcastle in 2023.
Todd Payten's outfit was the most improved club in 2022, moving from the competition's worst defensive club in 2021 to its second-best.
However, their defensive fortitude wavered somewhat in the post-origin run to the finals.
In their first 12 games, North Queensland conceded an average of 12.75 points per game. In their last 12 games, including finals matches, this jumped to 20.3 points per game.
If the Cowboys are to join Penrith at the summit of the NRL, Payten needs to address this significant end-of-season defensive slump otherwise North Queensland may find themselves sliding right back down the way they came.
Though Dylan Brown's new-look long-term extension has put Eels' fans somewhat at ease, the prospect of losing Mitchell Moses would be apocalyptic for Brad Arthur in 2023, as the star halfback is already testing his worth on the open market.
Moses is being heavily sought after by his former club, the Wests Tigers, while the Bulldogs are also said to be interested. There's even a chance the Dolphins may refocus their efforts after missing out on Brown in the market.
The losses of Reed Mahoney, Isaiah Papali'i and Marata Niukore have already caused some to say that Parramatta has missed its premiership window, but losing Moses would effectively shatter that window.
In 2019 the Panthers finished the season in 10th, missing the finals. From 2020 to 2022 they made three consecutive Grand Finals, winning two - not solely but in part thanks to Apisai Koroisau.
Koroisau returned to Penrith in 2020 after five seasons with Manly but now that he has become a Wests Tiger, and the premiers are looking a little skinny at dummy half.
Mitch Kenny is the front-runner to start at hooker next year, while his understudy Soni Luke and veteran Tyrone Peachey, whose versatility allows him to slot in anywhere, will be waiting in the wings.
At the moment, none of them come close to the representative-level quality of Koroisau and that lack of a premier nine may be what holds Penrith back from winning a historic three-peat.
Age was a factor in South Sydney's decision not to extend Adam Reynolds's time at Redfern.
However, as Damien Cook and Cody Walker are approaching similar ages, it is strange that the Rabbitohs have committed to both for the immediate future.
It was clear that the decision to move on Reynolds was made in favour of bringing Lachlan Ilias into grade, but without clear replacements for Cook and Walker the club may be in strife should they lose a gear or two next season.
Outside of Walker and Illias, South Sydney does contain Blake Taaffe and Dean Hawkins to potentially wear the 6.
Highly touted dummy-half Peter Mamouzelos is accompanied by Siliva Havili as backup nines.
It would be a bold statement to claim that Walker or Cook are over the hill, but time can catch up with you quickly and the pair are 32 and 31 years old respectively.
Perhaps the obvious one here is anything happening to Ben Hunt, as the club captain continues to carry the squad on his back week after week.
However, the departure of young talent next season is another troubling situation for the Red V.
The re-signings of Hunt and Talatau Amone has moved Jayden Sullivan to third in the halves pecking order and motivated him to look at other clubs.
Tyrell Sloan had also requested a release during the tumultuous end to the Red V's 2022 campaign, but he's since backflipped on the decision to fight for his place. There's still every chance he may start the season as fullback, with current custodian Cody Ramsey out indefinitely with health issues.
Compounding these issues is the fact that coach Anthony Griffin is set for the axe next year and these young players probably have no idea who will take the role from 2024 onwards.
The Roosters were underwhelming last season, not bad - just underwhelming.
Expectations were certainly high after they fought through injury troubles in 2021 and made the finals.
The return of Luke Keary would relieve James Tedesco of some of his workload from the previous year, and he'd create a new scintillating combination with Sam Walker - this never really happened.
The Roosters weren't bad last year - far from it, but they also weren't the premiership force some hoped they would be.
The addition of Brandon Smith can only be a good thing for the tri-colours but it would be unfortunate if this spine, dripping with world-class ability, fails to gel in 2023.
This roster, despite some lean pickings in the front row, is too good to miss the top eight next year, but in my eyes, it would be a failure for Easts not to make top four and push for title contention.
Good, not great but not awful - is the forecast for The Dolphins first season of NRL football.
They have one of the greatest coaches in the league at the helm in Wayne Bennett and have laid the foundations of a strong club by buying experience along with young talent.
If you asked for a prediction from 100 people as to where they place on the ladder next year, the average would probably be between 9th and 13th.
But a wooden spoon or bottom four finish would be a significant stumble on the road to building the new franchise.
Additionally, it would make it just that little bit harder to recruit new players.
It's hard to think of a worse fate for Wests Tigers fans than the one they have endured - finishing 2022 with the club's first wooden spoon.
However, 2023 is a time of change for the Tigers thanks to the return of Tim Sheens and the recruitment of grand finalists, Apisai Koroisau and Isaiah Papali'i.
David Klemmer and Charlie Staines have also been brought on board as the Tigers look towards a brighter future.
But recently, there has been more broken at the joint venture than just a sub-standard playing roster.
Hopefully whatever internal issues have prevented the club from reaching finals can be ironed out so that the Tigers don't make collecting spoons a new hobby.