The star of the 2022 NRL season is beginning to follow a trend path to its preceding campaign, with a gulf in quality becoming more apparent as the year progresses.
Last season saw the average winning margin reach a 21st century high of 18, sparking concern for the balance among all 16 sides.
In 2021, the top six sides all enjoyed campaigns that recorded a points differential of more than 100, with the Storm falling one point short of the 500 mark.
The Knights, who finished the year in seventh with a 12-12 record, stunningly amassed a points differential of -143 despite their finals finish, with more than half the competition falling well below par.
One reason this divide has widened could be due to the player market, according to NRL great Matty Johns, with star players at top clubs at times opting to re-sign on deals financially shorter than what's on offer elsewhere from lower-placed clubs.
Following Kalyn Ponga's decision to retain his services with Newcastle until the end of 2027, Johns expressed his frustrations at the "situation", with bottom sides needing to pay higher prices for lesser players.
โI just donโt know how itโs going to level up in the next five years,โ he toldย SEN's Morning Glory.ย
โWeโve got a situation at the moment where the best clubs are retaining their best players for less.
โThe clubs that are struggling are having to pay a lot more for any sort of quality.
โItโs panic buying during COVID. Whatever is on the shelf, they (the weaker teams) just try to grab for whatever price.โ
The current top eight sees seven sides already placed with a points differential of 22 or more, while the bottom four are in the minus by more than 50, headlined by the Bulldogs at -109 from their seven matches.
The ladder has begun to show a spit in quality, with Johns almost already locking in seven of the eight finals spots after just six rounds.
โYou can see the divide start to happen now,โ he added.
โIโm almost certain of seven teams that will be there in September.
โI think thereโs nearly the rest of the competition that is fighting for one spot.โ
The NRL talent pool is set to thin next season with the introduction of the Dolphins, which is sure to add to the imbalance if the competition and scrap for star players from top sides.
I agree that the bottom teams are paying too much, but I would contend that the problem is not that the talent pool is too shallow – it is that the unsuccessful teams are poor at recruitment and retention.
In particular, they pay too much for “promising” spine players (particularly halves), and they sign them for long deals. If the player works out, then they have got a good deal. If he does not deliver on his promise, then they have a big chunk of salary cap wasted. That means that they can afford only small beer for the rest of the squad. This tempts them to squander even more money on a “unicorn” who will turn it all around. And so it gets even worse…
The solution? I suggest:
a) sign new players on one or two year contracts – so they know they are always playing for their future.
b) sign only players who have shown they can play successfully in the NRL in _some_ position (like Burton or Hynes), not kids with no NRL track record, who just might be the next thing. (Invariably, they are not).
c) don’t hire teenagers, especially if you want them for key roles. No matter what skills they have, they will struggle mentally at a struggling club. Better to sign a Dale Finucane or an Aiden Tolman than some hulking nineteen year old who might turn out as the next Payne Hass, but who might also turn out to be a high-maintenance disappointment.