With Origin over for another year, all representative eyes now turn to the internationals at the end of the NRL Season.
Namely, the Pacific Championships and the first Ashes Series in 22 years.
English fans, players and coaches feel England have never had a better chance of beating Australia in a series for the first time since 1970 when hostilities resume this coming October.
I would go as far to say that, by virtue of the distracted and dis-organised Australians, if England don't reign supreme in the fast-approaching series then, they might never do so again!
I'm English by birth and still sound very Pommy as I lived there until my late 20s, but I now reside and coach in Australia and have done for a long time. I have coached more Aussie internationals than English, more NRL players than Super League, but I still keep strong tabs on both.
The Ashes announcements got the juices flowing, and after watching numerous old Ashes battles on YouTube for the last six weeks I am now ready to analyse how the first series in 22 years might pan out.
The Englishman in me knows exactly how the home fires burn, but my time in Australia has exposed to me the qualities of rugby league Down Under.
I have identified four reasons that England can win the forthcoming Ashes and then, to provide balance, those same reasons have been analysed as to why Australia will reign supreme.
Here goes…
The RLPA
The Rugby League Players Association (RLPA) is ever more powerful in Australia. One of the ways it has significantly looked after its members of late (many players in the NRL) has been to ensure that they get adequate rest from training commitments and representative matches between campaigns.
Why this benefits England
There are whispers that the RLPA are putting their foot down when it comes to potential demands on the selected players ahead of this trip to Europe. That's why we heard strong indications of a potential warm-up game in France that disappeared as soon as they were mooted. The word on the street is that the Aussies were keen on this in order to help the transition process to the Northern Hemisphere.
Previous Head Coach of Australia, Mal Meninga has done more tours to Europe as a player or coach than anyone mainstream in recent rugby league history. He knows the road and he knew that if Australia landed in England not much more than a week before the first test, they would be in trouble. He left the job frustrated at the lack of preparation time allowed.
Also, England and Great Britain's record against Australia at Wembley since 1990 is quite good, with wins there in opening matches coming in 1990, 1994 and the 1995 World Cup.
The visitors, with some players included who didn't play in finals, others who did and some who may be coming back from injury will suffer from not playing at least one game together, prior. Some of the players may be off the pace, slightly.
Why this benefits Australia
Big Mal has apparently not been backwards in coming forwards in telling those in his circle that things are going to be against his former side on this trip. For the new coach, whoever that may be, any pushback to their preparatory plans will only fuel the Kangaroo's fire.
There is nothing better for a sports team to buy into than a siege mentality.
By the time the new coach throws in the usual ‘refs will be against us' to add to the mix, there's every chance the Green and Golds will know exactly what's in store before they get on the plane.
Also, considering the contrary view. If the RLPA are of the opinion that ‘less is more' for their players, then, they will be at the very least, fresh from any knocks that may emerge from a warm-up game.
The verdict
Advantage England here. If Australia had one or two warm-up games they'd be so much better prepared.
The quality of the NRL
Why this benefits England
Have you seen how many English players are running around in the NRL these days? It didn't seem that long ago that such a sight was rarer than hen's teeth after the English game switched to summer, making it impossible for players to do a stint on the other side of the world.
Now though, the Australian game is full of Pommies. Herbie Farnworth, Kai-Pearce Paul, Morgan Smithies, Matty Nicholson, John Bateman and Dom Young are the players that will come into contention to make coach Shaun Wane's top seventeen (if they are fit).
Victor Radley has declared himself an Englishman for the internationals; so too now has AJ Brimson.
Having almost a team's worth of talent in the strongest rugby league competition in the world exposes the English qualified players to the highest levels, week in week out. George Williams has played NRL and gone back home. You could argue the pool of English players is as qualified as ever to grab the Ashes.
Why this benefits Australia
One name sums up why this perceived strength could be a curse.
Dom Young.
An England regular, his defensive frailties have been exposed in the NRL, so much so, his club dropped him from the team and started looking at a deal with the Newcastle Knights for him to leave immediately!
The amount of scrutiny of the game in Australia is well beyond that in Europe. This is not just from the huge media the sport gets but also coaching staffs at clubs that are far better resourced than their Super League equivalents. Its players are also more aware and astute than ever.
You can guarantee that, if the weaknesses of Dom Young have been found and exposed, then so have the weaknesses of every player in the NRL, including the English contingent.
The verdict
This one is a clear win for the Aussies. There might be a few English who have spent some time in the NRL, but the Green and Golds have more experience in it and also grew up playing in a footy mad country. The intense football played in much of the country is in their DNA.
Australia Depleted?
Why this benefits England
Last year on my podcast (The Rugby League Coach Podcast in case you were wondering!) I said that the Australian side that played in the Pacific Championships was the weakest in my lifetime.
I reasoned that with all the withdrawals from injury and those top line players that had decided to switch allegiance to other nations that they were there for the taking.
Without injuries, the Australian side is still formidable. Yet the NRL injury rates of late have gone through the roof and Origin usually doesn't pass without at least one star ruled out for the rest of the season as a result.
Once the injuries kick in, Australia do look somewhat human. And beatable.
Why this benefits Australia
It's actually really hard to find a benefit for Australia to this. I see this as England's greatest chance of winning the Ashes in my lifetime, and I am not far off half a century old.
If there is one crumb of comfort for the Aussies though, it's that the last time England were trending very well in the quest for a Holy Grail – the 2021 World Cup played a year later in 2022 - the pressure seemed to get to them and they lost unexpectedly in the Semi Final, to a Samoan team they had put 60 points past only weeks before.
If they don't win the Ashes this year, on home soil, I am not sure when they will.
The verdict
Any reduction in the quality of the Australian team will be a boost to English hopes. We won't know the true extent of this impact until after the NRL Grand Final.
As a result, I am declaring no winner here. If Australia can be at full strength, they will be too hard to stop, but there's a long way to go yet!
Form and history
Why this benefits England
The last two series at home to Tonga in 2023 and Samoa in 2024 have been significant wins for England. They are unbeaten since the last World Cup. The form line says they're winning.
At the same time, Australia lost the 2023 Pacific Championships after getting heavily beaten by New Zealand in the final.
Why this benefits Australia
Tonga and Samoa were not at their strongest when they visited England on their respective tours to be honest. Also, Tonga in particular were very unhappy at refereeing standards.
Australia got themselves sorted for last year's Pacific Championships and went through undefeated to take it out, despite being somewhat depleted.
So that's the form. What about the history?
This is probably one of the biggest things in Australia's favour.
English and British Rugby League has had a performance decline for the last half of a century. Great Britain won the 1972 World Cup and the 1970 Ashes. Those are the last series victories against the old enemy.
Australia have won 13 consecutive Ashes series, and five of them were 3–0 series whitewashes.
There was a ten-year gap between single test match victories from 1978 to 1988; the Kangaroos winning 15 consecutive matches. Right now, it's a 19-year gap since Great Britain last won a test against Australia. England hasn't won one since 1995 (30 years).
The verdict
Whilst England's unbeaten period is a positive, the sheer weight of history and Australia's winning 2024, favour the Kangaroos.
Summary
Using these four areas as a measuring stick, the score is 2-1 to Australia, with another still in the hands of the rugby league gods.
I actually believe the test series will end up 2-1 to Australia, too (with an asterix). England will win the first test at Wembley by virtue of the Aussies not having a warm-up match, but that will be all the Kangaroos need to make sure the next two tests continue the historical trend.
That said, the caveat is going to be the level to which Australia come to England with men left behind either through injury or playing for another nation.
No sooner had AJ Brimson been cleared to play for England, had it been pointed out that there was a precedent set for Kalyn Ponga to switch allegiances to the Kiwis should he wish.
Whatever the analysis taking place now, we still have a few months to see how the cards fall and to whet the appetite!
Lee Addison is a former club coach at the Sea Eagles and Panthers, and the founder of rugbyleaguecoach.com.au. His recently published book ‘Rugby League Coach' is available now on Amazon and www.rugbyleaguecoach.com.au.
