Premiership Odds: (via betting.club): $34.00
Big Outs: Trent Merrin
Big Ins: Tim Lafai, Russell Packer, Josh McCrone
The Dragons showed a fair few of us up in 2015 by playing well above predictions and even featuring come finals time.
Their much questioned recruitment strategy paid off as the Dragons came within a play of moving through to the second round of the finals.
Marshall and Widdop were brilliant in the halves while Josh Dugan had a season to remember in the custodian role.
They’ve recruited better (on paper) than last season, but can they match their efforts of 2015, a season considered by many as a huge over achievement?
Key Player: Gareth Widdop
The English number six continued to show in 2015 that he was more than just a product of a brilliant support cast during his time in Melbourne.
Widdop was in everything the Dragons did last season. He had 15 try assists to go with his nine tries and six line breaks.
His kicking game in general play was spot on and added a new dimension to the Dragons attack, while his goal kicking was really on point all season.
He looks right at home in the Red V and after a season and a half partnering Benji Marshall, looks ready to really stamp himself on the competition this season.
Young Gun: Euan Aitken
20 year-old Euan Aitken was one of the finds of the season last year and had a brilliant debut season in a role the Dragons had previously had troubles filling.
He only scored the six tries but offered a consistency that the Red V did not otherwise enjoy in the centres.
Aitken will be better for the year of NRL football under his belt, and should improve on his modest 2015 try tally.
A player who can break a tackle and create an offload, he has all the tools in his chest to become a real long-term fixture for the Dragons.
Best Signing: Tim Lafai
Tim Lafai was the unlucky player to make way will Will Hopoate in the Bulldogs backline, however the Dogs loss is the Dragons gain.
He was well under par in 2015 but has shown his talents in the past. His combination with Jason Nightingale should see the star winger play a much more important role this season.
Lafai will present a threat out wide that the squad didn’t have prior to his signing.
I’m sure he will be very keen to show his former bosses at Belmore that they made an error in allowing him to move to the Dragons.
Strength: Second row provides plenty of work and attacking ability
Joel Thompson and Tyson Frizell are on the cusp of NSW selection, while Mike Cooper had a monster 2015. Throw in Jack de Belin and you have a strong back row rotation.
Frizell and Thompson are both able to play 80 minutes, while de Belin proved he was able to play big minutes off the bench, which will help counter the reduced interchange (see below).
Unfortunately Frizell is likely to miss the start of the season due to off-season surgery but he has proven to be a brilliant pick up for the Red V.
Thompson and de Belin are work horses but are capable of popping that magic pass. Cooper went under the radar last season but was one of the unsung heroes in the Dragons making the eight.
Weakness: Work rate up front questionable
Packer, Ah Mau, Creagh, Lui, Masoe and Lui are all handy front rowers, but none are known for playing big minutes.
One will have to find a way to contribute more than in the past in terms of work rate due to the reduction in interchange.
The Dragons have genuine 80 minute back rowers so this may not be a huge issue but they will need assistance from the big men in the middle.
Packer especially will be a target of dummy half runners so he can expect to make a large amount of tackles. If they are able to tire the big man out, McGregor may be forced to ring the changes early, which could disrupt his interchange.
Strongest 17:
1. Josh Dugan
2. Peter Mata’utia
3. Euan Aitken
4. Tim Lafai
5. Jason Nightingale
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Benji Marshall
8. Russell Packer
9. Mitch Rein
10. Leeson Ah Mau
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Joel Thompson
13. Mike Cooper
14. Ben Creagh
15. Jack de Belin
16. Dunamis Lui
17. Mose Masoe
Prediction: 11th
As mentioned earlier, many, myself included, saw the Dragons eighth placed finished in 2015 as an over achievement. I don’t believe they can match it again this season.
Merrin is a huge loss but Mike Cooper’s likely move to lock should offset the loss, while Russell Packer’s inclusion adds size up front.
The squad just doesn’t have the depth to match the likes of the Broncos, Roosters and co, and an injury to a key player like Widdop or Dugan really brings a talented strongest 17 back to the field.
They have a first 17 capable of playing finals football if things go well. However I don’t think they have the players capable of creating the chances they need, if things don’t go to plan.
If Dugan fires and Widdop continues his 2015 form, I may eat these words, but I can see this side leaking plenty of points through the middle.
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